The combat aircraft fleet of the IAF, other than the Su-30MKI, is largely of pre-1985 vintage and is nearly two generations behind the technology required to meet the challenges that the nation is expected to face in the future

Air Chief Marshal P.V. Naik, former Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), set the cat among the pigeons while speaking to the media on the occasion of the 78th anniversary when he said that half the assets of the Indian Air Force (IAF) were obsolete. While the statement by the CAS might have been a source of immense discomfiture for the government as was apparent in the vigorous damage control exercise that followed, it was an expression of reality. The combat aircraft fleet of the IAF, other than the Su-30MKI, is largely of pre-1985 vintage and is nearly two generations behind the technology required to meet the challenges that the nation is expected to face in the future. The situation was redeemed somewhat when in a public forum, the Minister of Defence A.K. Antony did acknowledge the need for the nation to modernise the armed forces so that they are prepared to meet any threat in the years to come. In March this year, the then CAS went a step further and stated that the IAF was in the process of buying weapon systems that ought to have been procured a decade ago. The question that plagues the public mind today is whether and to what extent is the IAF in a state to cope with the emerging challenges to national security.

The combat fleet which constitutes the spearhead of the IAF needs to be continually restructured in conformity with the rising status of the nation in the region as well as on the global scene. As a regional power, India has the responsibility to ensure peace and stability in the region. It is also important that the combat fleet of the IAF must be capable of coping with the threat posed not only by the traditional adversary Pakistan but more importantly, by the newly emerging superpower China. Despite the soft-line approach adopted towards China, rivalry between the two nations and conflict are inevitable. Recent development related to the Chinese response to moves by India at oil exploration in the territorial waters of Vietnam is an indicator of the things to come.

Revamp of the Combat Fleet

Pakistan Air Force (PAF), though smaller in size compared to the IAF, is a potent force as it continues to receive the latest versions of the F-16 fighter aircraft from the US and a variety of modern combat platforms from China in large numbers. Several times the size of the IAF, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is also evolving into a formidable aerospace power, nudging fifth generation technology. While both China and Pakistan individually can pose serious challenge for the IAF, threat to national security would be compounded in the event of collusion between them in overt hostile action. As per a study in the past, but valid even today, the IAF would require a 45-squadron combat fleet equipped with modern aircraft to sustain successful defensive posture in the event of simultaneous onslaught of both the adversaries. However, with the MiG-23 and bulk of the MiG-21 fleet phased out, the light combat aircraft (LCA) Tejas yet to receive final operational clearance; and licensed production of the Su-30MKI proceeding at a slow pace, the strength of combat squadrons has fallen well below the authorised figure of 39.5. Even with the induction till date of seven squadrons of the fourth-generation Su-30MKI, the number of combat squadrons with the IAF stands at a mere 34. Further, as per the Ministry of Defence (MoD), the remaining nine squadrons of the troubleprone MiG-21 fleet will be phased out by 2017. Hopefully by then, another eight squadrons of the Su-30MKI should join the fleet bringing the total to 33 squadrons. There is therefore the urgent need to finalise the contract for the supply of the six squadrons of the medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA), a requirement projected by the IAF in 2001. With the induction of the MMRCA, there would be a good chance that the strength of combat squadrons would creep up to 39. If the MMRCA order is enhanced by three squadrons (63 aircraft) as is being contemplated, the combat fleet could go up to 42 squadrons, a target stipulated by the MoD to be achieved by 2022 (end of Thirteenth Five Year Plan period).

In an effort to transit into the fifth generation technology, HAL has entered into a joint venture with the United Aircraft Corporation of Russia for the co-development and production of the fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) for the IAF. This will be a customised twin-seat derivative of the Russian T-50 PAK-FA which is currently undergoing developmental flight test programme. A team of designers from HAL is currently working with Russian counterparts on the design of the derivative designated by the IAF as the FGFA. With induction expected to commence in 2017, the IAF is to get around 250 (14 squadrons) of these machines not earlier than 2030. However, by 2025, the 14 squadrons of thirdgeneration fighters such as the Jaguar, MiG-27 and MiG-29 currently on the IAF inventory, would have to be phased out. In the final tally, the combat fleet of the IAF would drop to 39 squadrons. Any increase beyond this figure would have to be achieved by inducting the LCA Tejas Mk II or possibly by the medium combat aircraft (MCA) to be developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA). The MCA is still in the conceptual stage and given the experience with the Tejas Mk I, the time frame for the availability of the MCA for induction into the IAF cannot be predicted with any degree of confidence. The IAF would need to factor in this uncertainty into their modernisation plan.