Imagine a G20 Summit without the Heads of the US, China and Russia. The US spearheads the G7 and NATO and remains the global hegemon though facing decline and challenges from within and without. China as the new challenger, world's leading manufacturing giant significantly spearheads the BRICS alongside India and Russia. Together G7 plus BRICS give meaning and substance to the G20.

Absence of the Big-three

China's decision for Xi not to attend need not be interpreted as a boycott. Unlike the United States and Argentina (President Javier Milei aligning with Trump), whose leaders are skipping the meeting for political reasons, Beijing has made clear that it supports South Africa's G20 presidency and intends to engage fully in the summit's proceedings through Premier Li. China's participation through Premier Li Qiang underscored its continued commitment to multilateral forums and cooperation with Africa, even as the global political landscape around the G20 becomes increasingly fractured.

China's participation through Premier Li Qiang underscored its continued commitment to multilateral forums and cooperation with Africa, even as the global political landscape around the G20 becomes increasingly fractured

President Vladimir Putin who has an International Criminal Court case hanging over his head sent Maksim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration, to head the Russian contingent. Oreshkin, a trusted aide and former economic development Minister, was supported by a delegation of deputy ministers and presidential advisers.

Ostensibly, President Trump skipped because of his concerns over the treatment of white Afrikaners in South Africa and policy disagreement with the country's agenda. The US opposes South Africa's G20 agenda, which includes a strong focus on climate action, supporting developing countries, and pushing for global debt relief. Earlier in May 2025, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa had walked into an ambush when he met Trump in the Oval Office. After a cordial beginning, where Ramaphosa was at pains to stress his desire to improve relations with the United States, things had turned hostile. Trump repeated false claims of a "white genocide" in South Africa and then ordered the lights dimmed to play videos he said supported his allegation.

Perhaps Trump not coming to South Africa may be the best thing that could have happened to the G20

Perhaps Trump not coming to South Africa may be the best thing that could have happened to the G20. Imagine him getting up on the stage in Johannesburg and doing what his Vice President J.D. Vance has done in Europe when he arrived there and insulted each and every foreign leader sitting in that room. Trump would have dominated to the extent that the other saner voices could have been drowned out. The empty chair actually gave more room for other members to speak up. And for Prime Minister Modi to attend in person.

India at the G20 Summit

Prime Minister Modi had skipped the Gaza Peace Summit in Egypt and the ASEAN-India Summit in Kuala Lumpur this October as well as earlier avoided travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) 2025 even as India-US relations have been on the rocks not just in the direct aftermath of the April Pahalgam terror attacks that prompted India to launch Operation Sindoor against Pakistan-based terror infrastructures. India has also been facing off with the Trump government over heightened 50 per cent tariffs due to its Russian oil purchases amid stalled trade negotiations.

While the official reasons stated for each of the many previous summits which the Prime Minister has skipped may have been preoccupation with more pressing matters of the state, it is very well conceivable that avoiding a one-on-one with Trump and the poor optics of being seen with Pakistani leaders in the same room orchestrated by Trump with his abominable infatuation with "that remarkable Field Marshal" may have been the overriding factor.

The G20 Summit 2025

The Johannesburg summit was a milestone since it was the first time the summit was being hosted in Africa, and the second year the African Union attended as a permanent G20 member. With a growing presence at the summit and the absence of the three major powers, South Africa seized the opportunity to set an Africa-cantered agenda: climate disaster preparation, clean energy transition, and affordable debt solutions for low-income countries to pursue these projects, while continuing to supply critical minerals to the world.

The Johannesburg summit was a milestone since it was the first time the summit was being hosted in Africa, and the second year the African Union attended as a permanent G20 member

South Africa broke with tradition at the first G20 summit in Africa by issuing a leaders' declaration on the opening day of the talks on Saturday. Declarations usually come at the end of the summit but no one was perhaps prepared to take chances, should the limelight hugging, self-obsessed disrupter, Donald Trump has a change of mind. In the spirit of Ubuntu, the first ever G20 summit in Africa recognised that individual nations cannot thrive in isolation. The African philosophy of Ubuntu, often translated as "I am because we are", emphasises the interconnectedness of individuals within a broader communal, societal, economic, and environmental context.

In the spirit of Ubuntu, the first ever G20 summit in Africa recognised that individual nations cannot thrive in isolation

Prime Minister Modi in his remarks before his departure to Johannesburg echoed these sentiments by stating that, "The theme of this year's G20 has been 'Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability', by which South Africa has carried forward the outcomes from the previous Summits held in New Delhi, India and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. I will present India's perspective at the Summit in line with our vision of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' and 'One Earth, One Family and One Future'."

In more specific and pointed remarks, at Finland's first-ever G20 summit participation, its President Alexander Stubb made waves with a stark warning: the global order is tilting rapidly toward the East and South, leaving Western-led multilateralism under threat. Stubb called for urgent reforms, saying old post-war power structures no longer fit today's realities. Are global institutions keeping up with a changing world, or are new conflicts inevitable?

Of course, Stubb was referring bluntly to the US led West and their self-indulgent appropriation of global resources and exploitation of global markets through tools and arrangements designed post WW II in the form of Bretton Woods institutions and the muscular rule of Petrodollar, especially under MAGA President Trump as the US lines up the world's largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford in the Caribbean for operations against the country with world's largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela. Coming from a Scandinavian Head of State, the truth bomb must have hit home.

Conclusion

The world leaders need to collaborate and calmly deliberate over the direction the world is heading with disrupted global supply chains, rising tariff walls, unending wars and turmoil in energy, food and fertilizer supplies. They got this opportunity in Johannesburg on 22-23 November 2025, helped hugely with Trump's absence.

Together G7 plus BRICS give meaning and substance to the G20

The G20 may have effectively become G19 with the US boycott. One may speculate on how many world leaders may turn up for the G20 under the American chairmanship next year, scheduled to be hosted in Trump's golf estate in Mar-a-Lago Florida. The trends suggest the fracture is only widening as the world's sole hegemon stumbles under the burden of a $37 trillion debt, a receding petrodollar and sharpening internal divisions along Red vs Blue lines.