The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

According to reports of March 10, 2025, India and France have finalised negotiations for the purchase of 26 Rafale M fighter aircraft, valued at approximately $7.6 billion. The order is expected to include 22 Rafale M carrier-based fighters and four Rafale B dual-seat trainers. The deal also includes the purchase of advanced missiles such as Meteor and Exocet, along with performance-based logistics support and training programmes for crew training. The Rafale B trainers are not designed for carrier operations and will be used for land-based training.

Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of the Rafale, is 'considering' establishing a final assembly line in India to support future orders and align with India's 'Make in India' initiative

The formal agreement is expected to be signed in April 2025 during a visit to India by the Defence Minister of France. This deal marks a significant enhancement of the Indian Navy's capabilities, as the Rafale M will replace the ageing MiG-29K and MiG-29KUB aircraft currently operated by the Navy's INAS 300 "White Tigers" and INAS 303 "Black Panthers" squadrons. The new aircraft will be deployed on the Indian Navy's aircraft carriers, INS 'Vikrant' and INS 'Vikramaditya'. This acquisition is part of India's broader efforts to strengthen its maritime strike capabilities, particularly in response to the growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The move also reflects the growing strategic partnership between India and France, which has been bolstered by previous defence collaborations, including the delivery of 36 Rafale jets to the Indian Air Force under a 2016 contract.

Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of the Rafale, is "considering" establishing a final assembly line in India to support future orders and align with India's 'Make in India' initiative. The delivery of the Rafale M aircraft is expected to begin by May 2028, with the first jet to be delivered within 37 months of signing the contract. There are a number of important issues here that need to be considered by our policy makers if India is to match up with the current and evolving threats.

China has announced a significant increase in its defence budget for 2025, marking a 7.2 per cent rise to approximately $246 billion

China has announced a significant increase in its defence budget for 2025, marking a 7.2 per cent rise to approximately $246 billion. The increase is consistent with the previous two years and reflects China's ongoing efforts to advance its military capabilities amidst rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with the United States and in the Taiwan Strait. The budget hike is part of China's broader strategy to enhance its military presence and technological advancements, including the development of new-domain forces and improved reconnaissance and logistics systems. It is well known that the "actual" defence expenditure of China is much more (because of unreported allocations across other budgets) than the figures that it officially gives out. Compare this to the annual defence budget allocations by India, which generally turn out to be "negative in actual terms". In fact, India has failed to make the right balance between economy and security – notwithstanding the misinformation/disinformation campaigns.

The above is ironically happening because of the belief of India's political hierarchy that there will be no war. To add to this, the External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has publicly said that India cannot fight China whose economy is many times more than India's. This is negative and naïve thinking. The latest missive from China that the Dragon and Elephant Must Dance Together would lull our political hierarchy into complacency even more. But we should remember Beijing excels in deception and China has backstabbed India repeatedly - last time in Ladakh in 2020. In January 2025, two senior PLA Generals (General Zhang Youxia and General He Weidong), while visiting troops, emphasised the need for heightened readiness, citing military tensions "on multiple fronts, including the border with India and the Taiwan Strait." Surely Beijing does not expect India to attack China.

The Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan had said in the recent past that the IAF could assume control of the Navy's air assets in certain contingencies. Given the anti-India China-Pakistan nexus, do we perceive that the Indian Ocean would not become active; when this was the case even during the 1971 Indo-Pak War?

A recent study by the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) has concluded that the French Air Force 'could' survive just three days against Russia, Rafale fighter jets (mainstay of the French Air Force) being 4th generation pitted against 5th generation Russian fighter aircraft

A recent study by the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) has concluded that the French Air Force "could" survive just three days against Russia, Rafale fighter jets (mainstay of the French Air Force) being 4th generation pitted against 5th generation Russian fighter aircraft, in addition to other factors mentioned in the study report. Notably, the study team also included former French Air Force officers. Moreover, we are looking at induction of the Rafale M beginning 2028, whereas, this may also be delayed with the current geopolitics of Europe planning its own security, independent of the US, French President Emmanuel Macron looking at leading the European Security Architecture (France being a nuclear power), as well as fuelling the war in Ukraine.

As mentioned above, Dassault Aviation is "considering" establishing a final assembly line in India to support future orders and align with India's 'Make in India' initiative. This is all fine but why are we not pressuring France for transfer of technology of the Rafale; France may be more amenable to this given the US-Europe tensions, but it is India that should take the initiative. The issue needs to be raised before the deal is signed, making it part of the contract.

Finally, there is periodic propaganda of shortening the procedure and every time a new defence procurement procedure is enacted, it is declared the ultimate. Yet even the political decision-making moves like a tortoise. When the 36 Rafale were procured for the IAF in 2016, there was already talk of procuring Rafale M for the Navy. But we are signing a deal for them in 2025 and the induction is "likely" to "commence" in 2028. Are we happy with this?