The Author is former Chief of Staff of a frontline Corps in the North East and a former helicopter pilot. He earlier headed the China & neighbourhood desk at the Defence Intelligence Agency. He retired in July 2020 and held the appointment of Addl DG Information Systems at Army HQ.

Trump's War on the Deep State

The US President Donald Trump had kicked off his third presidential campaign last year in March, describing the 2024 contest to unseat US President Joe Biden as "the final battle". Addressing a rally in Waco, Texas, he had asserted, in this race "either the deep state destroys America or we destroy the deep state." Kash Patel, Trump's FBI Director had long argued for the removal of security clearances to eradicate the "deep state". So, on day one, January 20, 2025, Trump stripped security clearances from many former CIA heads and military generals. He ordered the removal of security detail assigned to John Bolton, his former national security adviser-turned-foe and got rid of a Pentagon portrait of retired General Mark Milley, his former top military adviser who became an arch-critic.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) was all but demolished by his DOGE supremo Elon Musk since a deep dive into its fund allocations revealed it more as an extension of the CIA than any benevolent aid agency.

A month later, on February 21, 2025, Trump fired Air Force General CQ Brown Jr., a four-star pilot, and the country's Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Then in May, his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed the active duty Military and the National Guard to shed 20 per cent of its four-star general officers. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) was all but demolished by his DOGE supremo Elon Musk since a deep dive into its fund allocations revealed it more as an extension of the CIA than any benevolent aid agency. The war against the Deep State also involved snuffing out funds to the mainstream media starting with the Associated Press and a host of Ivy League universities beginning with Harvard. US intelligence and targeting support to Ukraine in its exhausting war against Russia was tapered down alongside stopping supplies of military hardware. Trump seemed to be on course to carry forward his agenda to demolish the 'Deep State'.

Setbacks and the Rise of the Arms Lobby

Then some events unfolded a different picture. The first was the well anticipated yet shock departure of Elon Musk from the White House as May 2025 came to a close. Trump had entrusted Musk with DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to effect a $2 trillion cut in spending through savage layoffs of government staff across agencies and departments. While the entrenched bureaucracy and some of Trump's cabinet with long ties with the Deep State thwarted Musk's efforts, what came as the proverbial last straw was the 'Big Beautiful Bill'. On December 20, 2024, then President-elect Trump had promised to cut "hundreds of billions" in federal spending in 2025 and said he didn't want to have to raise the debt ceiling during his term. Instead, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) would increase defence spending by $156 billion to over $1 trillion and add $5.0 trillion to the debt including interest to the already gargantuan $37 trillion national debt. The arms lobby, the lynchpin of the Deep State is back in play.

On June 18, 2025, Trump hosted Pakistani rogue mullah Army Chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House breaking all protocols and ignoring the elected civilian government of Pakistan, following Munir's solicitous call for Trump to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. The Pakistan Army has symbiotic relationship with the CIA since the early sixties, establishing multiple operating bases in both halves of the country, east and west, to launch spy missions and insert CIA trained anti-Chinese-government Tibetan rebel operatives for clandestine spying and sabotage missions. Munir's role in the Pahalgam massacre on April 22, 2025 and the subsequent Indian retribution codenamed Operation Sindoor through May 7-10 was attempted to be whitewashed.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) would increase defence spending by $156 billion to over $1 trillion and add $5.0 trillion to the debt including interest to the already gargantuan $37 trillion national debt.

Global Fallout: New Alliances, Conflicts, and Proxy Wars

In the Middle-east, clashes between rival sectarian factions in Syria has left tens of thousands Alawites, Druze and other minorities dead and displaced. Survivors recount harrowing scenes, including mass executions, indiscriminate shelling and the burial of scores of victims in mass graves, all indicating an ISIS comeback. Trump fondly described the Syrian leader Ahmed al Sharaa, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a splinter group of al-Qaida that captured power in January this year as a "young, attractive guy," when they met in Saudi Arabia in May 2025, adding: "Tough guy. Strong past. Very strong past. Fighter. He's a real leader. He led a charge and he's pretty amazing." In Donald Trump's worldview, Asim Munir and al Sharaa are the new icons of liberty and freedom, of peace and prosperity. Kudos to him and the great Americans who elected this visionary leader.

On June 22, 2025, Trump announced the bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites, as Washington effectively joined Israel's war against Iran. Trump then went on to falsely and bombastically claim to have completely 'obliterated' three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan; contrary to assessment by his own intelligence agencies and the IAEA. The ceasefire declared the next day was forced due to substantial damage and devastation caused by Iranian missiles to Israeli facilities. Iran threatened to pull out from NPT and the war is open-ended with US military assets as legitimate targets for Iran now. "I'm not going to start wars, I'm going to stop wars," he had declared in his victory speech during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Centre on November 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump falsely and bombastically claim to have completely 'obliterated' three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan; contrary to assessment by his own intelligence agencies and the IAEA.

On June 25, 2025, NATO chief Mark Rutte announced at a summit in The Hague to have agreed to ramp up defence spending to five per cent of their countries' economic output by 2035. The US president described the decision, taken, as a "big win for Europe and... Western civilisation". That's a huge boost for the American arms lobby. Europe is already reeling under high energy costs since the outbreak of the Ukraine war after decoupling from cheap Russian natural gas; there is widespread de-industrialisation impacting growth and high cost of living for its citizens. But the Deep State has succeeded in impressing the NATO leadership to hike defence spending. There is virtual rebellion in the streets of most European capitals at this senseless commitment.

Then out of the blue, a border conflict between US backed Thailand and China backed Cambodia broke out on July 17, 2025 over a long disputed 11th Century Ta Moan Thom temple town. Proxy wars are a vital part of CIA toolkit since WW II, first on ideological divide, pitting the capitalist world against the communists and once the cold war ended, on manufactured enemies across neighbourhoods. Fortunately, the leaders of Cambodia and Thailand agreed to ceasefire, brokered by Malaysia, chair of the ASEAN effective at midnight July 28, after five days of fierce fighting that has displaced more than 3,00,000 people and marked their deadliest conflict in more than a decade.

Proxy wars are a vital part of CIA toolkit since WW II, first on ideological divide, pitting the capitalist world against the communists and once the cold war ended, on manufactured enemies across neighbourhoods.

Trump's Decline Amid Deep State Resurgence

Mired in controversy over his whispered role in the infamous Epstein saga involving pornography and child trafficking, Trump is buried deep under hubris and bad press. The tariff threats are not being taken seriously by anyone nor are threats by his ardent supporters like warmongering Senator Lindsay Graham who has threatened to crush the economies of India, Brazil and China, whoever imports oil from Russia. Even the NATO chief Mark Rutte's warning of 100 per cent tariffs and more sanctions, focused on India, China and Brazil as he called on the three countries to halt trade with Russia sounds hollow, bordering on the comical. How is a NATO chief empowered to impose tariffs on any country? Is he a sovereign?

In June 2017, in an interview with French Publication Le Figaro, Russian President Vladimir Putin, called out the deep state bureaucracy that controls US foreign policy, noting that US Presidents serve as little more than puppets for the ruling oligarchy. "A certain person may be elected by the public on the basis of his merit and ideals - but rarely is this person able to formulate policy," Putin explained. He then noted that the security service 'bureaucracy' in the US, which is typically known as the Deep State, is very powerful and as such does not allow any meaningful change in policy direction.

Six months into his Presidency, Trump may have already slipped into the status of a lame duck President overwhelmed by the clawing back of the Deep State.

"So a person is elected – he comes with ideas," Putin explained. "Then people with briefcases come visit him, well-dressed, in dark suits – kind of like mine. Except instead of a red tie it's black or navy." They drive home to the new President how the world runs.

Conclusion

Six months into his Presidency, Trump may have already slipped into the status of a lame duck President overwhelmed by the clawing back of the Deep State. The world is witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime of geopolitical and geo-economics seismic churning and there are bound to be fall outs and debris. The hope is that a more equitable global order may emerge, India regaining its pole position alongside other regional great powers. Bharat must stay its course.