The Author is former Chief of Staff of a frontline Corps in the North East and a former helicopter pilot. He earlier headed the China & neighbourhood desk at the Defence Intelligence Agency. He retired in July 2020 and held the appointment of Addl DG Information Systems at Army HQ.

To reasonably comprehend how much the world has changed in the past five weeks, let us capture how the world looked before February 28, 2026. The war in Ukraine had completed four years and nearly stalemated though Russia was making modest progress on the frontline while Ukraine retained the ability to once in a while strike key Russian energy and other infra deep inside. These Ukrainian strikes made little impact on the outcomes on the frontline but nevertheless made some headlines. The world had largely lost interest in this war front. That included the EU and UK who were assessing their own losses, militarily and economically, while making the usual noises about steadfast support to Ukraine.

In the past five weeks, the US and Israel have struck more than 15,000 targets in Iran including nuclear and missile production sites, IRGC command centres, 190 medical centres and the tragic bombing of a girls' school in the opening salvo that killed over 160 students.

The war in Gaza was in a gridlock, with the Mediterranean strip bombed to smithereens, the Hamas leadership decapitated many times over and yet retaining potent threat. US President Donald Trump viewed this front as a real estate venture, publicly declaring his intent to turn this into a Mediterranean Riviera. The fate of the two million Palestinians in Gaza didn't find much space in the conversations. Trump's Board of Peace had many hapless countries lined up as cheerleaders but little else.

Oil was back in focus. As the new year dawned, the US mounted a Hollywood style swift heliborne operation on January 3, 2026 to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and his wife and incarcerate them in a New York prison on charges of leading a fictitious drug cartel. Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves and had been reeling under crippling American sanctions since its oil industry was nationalised 50 years before on January 1, 1976 leading to the exit of oil giants Exxon and Shell. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez described Maduro as Venezuela's "only president" and ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods publicly declared that given the legal and commercial constructs in Venezuela, it's uninvestable.

The US has been forced to withdraw from 13 military bases around the Gulf with only one base in Northern Iraq being still operational.

Petrodollar that sustained the 'American Way of Life' and it dominance over global affairs was under challenge, this time from a collective called the BRICS. Individual countries and leaders who had challenged the supremacy of the Petrodollar earlier had been effectively neutered through regime change operations or devastating military attacks like those witnessed by Iraq and Libya. Now, long-time ally and lynchpin of the Petrodollar arrangement, Saudi Arabia failed to renew the 50-year-old agreement, hedging its bets by entering into a $50 billion agreement with China for trading in Yuan through massive real estate projects being executed by the later.

Europe continued to bleed economically, with clean Russian gas that powered its industrial growth sanctioned, and the US selling its LNG at nearly three times the costs. Massive deindustrialisation, coupled with high inflation due to energy costs exacerbated the economic and military pains of diverting hundreds of millions of Euros towards the Ukraine war effort which was becoming increasingly unpopular among the public at home.

Domestically both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Trump faced serious legal challenges. While Netanyahu faced corruption charges that could potentially lead to his arrest, President Trump was facing multiple legal and legislative challenges, including the toxic Epstein files revelations that could eject him from office.

The ferocity of the waves of Iranian hypersonic missile attacks on Israeli nuclear site at Dimona and other towns proves that Iran now has the upper hand in this war.

Thus we arrived at the dawn of February 28, 2026 when Israel followed by the US launched strikes on Iran despite ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear programme. Iran responded with missile and air strikes across the region, including in Israel, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Jordan.

In the past five weeks, the US and Israel have struck more than 15,000 targets in Iran including nuclear and missile production sites, IRGC command centres, 190 medical centres and the tragic bombing of a girls' school in the opening salvo that killed over 160 students. Iran has reciprocated with equal ferocity and tenacity, and continues to deliver blow after blow to the US military assets in the region including the HQs of its Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, key air defence radars, oil refineries of America's Gulf allies and gas loading terminals and major air bases, airports and industrial units.

The US has been forced to withdraw from 13 military bases around the Gulf with only one base in Northern Iraq being still operational. US and Israeli air defence radar networks have been comprehensively destroyed and both are running out of their pricey interceptor missiles like Patriot, THAAD and SM series. The ferocity of the waves of Iranian hypersonic missile attacks on Israeli nuclear site at Dimona and other towns proves that Iran now has the upper hand in this war.

More countries are weighing options to go nuclear while the US dominated global order is in complete disarray.

When Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, Iran struck Qatar's LNG facility, destroying 70 per cent of its capacity which translates to 20 per cent global capacity. It may take 3-5 years to restore production. 30-40 per cent of Gulf's refining capacity or roughly 11 million barrels per day capacity has been lost. Oil is trading at $110-135 per barrel and hundreds of VLCC tankers are idling in the war zone as Hormuz Strait is effectively blocked.

Global food production will be severely impacted as 30 per cent of urea fertilizer is stuck. So is the supply of Helium essential for microchips and other petrochemicals for manufacture of plastics. Gulf kingdoms that had invested billions in building luxury ecosystem for the global super-rich are staring at devastation. Over 2,000 super yachts are idling in the Dubai Marina with 12,000 maritime jobs gone, insurance premiums have surged by 300 per cent and the image of a safe haven lies shattered.

President Trump finds himself increasingly isolated by the day. NATO is staring at its quite burial, 35 years too late since logically it should have wound up in 1991 after the fall of Soviet Union. Trump has fired his Attorney General Pam Bondi while War Secretary Pete Hegseth has dismissed his Army Chief of Staff General Randy George. The UN has stopped even making the customary noises. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces a serious legal crisis potentially facing arrest while regional tensions are at its peak from Hezbollah and the Houthis. The Hurmuz Strait that was open before the war is effectively under Iranian control while US feigns being unaffected since it doesn't import oil from the region. Russia is back, as a major energy supplier and security provider while China surveys the fields for the right opening. More countries are weighing options to go nuclear while the US dominated global order is in complete disarray. In five weeks, the world has changed forever.