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SP's Military Yearbook 2021-2022
SP's Military Yearbook 2021-2022
       

AI-Controlled Robotic Attacks & Air Defence

Ukraine reportedly carried out the first attack exclusively using robotic systems near Lyptsi in the Kharkiv region, including drones equipped with machine guns, marking a possible milestone in robotic combined air and ground attacks

December 26, 2024 By Lt. General P.C. Katoch (Retd) Illustration(s): By SP Guide Pubns Photo(s): By X / DefenceU, Wikipedia / Fars Media Corporation
The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

 

The recent sighting of drones US over California, New Jersey and New York raised considerable concerns. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul suggested that some of the unidentified drones spotted over New Jersey and New York could be 'spy drones' from China. His statement came after America's Joe Boden Administration downplayed the sightings, insisting that many of the drones in question were harmless commercial aircraft. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced on December 17, 2024 that it is banning drone flights over 22 critical infrastructure locations in response to the incidents, though the White House maintains that there is no credible threat to public safety.

The concern follows "more than a month" of reported drone sightings in or near the airspace of airports and military facilities in California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Virginia, as well as overseas bases in Germany and the UK. In all, the FBI said that it has received "more than 5,000 reports" of drone sightings in the past month, of which the agency said about 100 warranted further investigation.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul suggested that some of the unidentified drones spotted over New Jersey and New York could be 'spy drones' from China, despite the Biden Administration downplaying the sightings as harmless commercial aircraft.

Amid the raging US-led NATO war on Russia using Ukraine as NATO proxy, Ukraine reportedly carried out the first attack exclusively with the help of robotic systems. The attack was carried out near the village of Lyptsi in the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) used dozens of robotic systems, including UAVs equipped with machine guns, as well as drones to plant and neutralise mines on Russian positions. As a result of the operation, the enemy positions suffered severe damage. It is believed that this was possibly the first substantial robotic combined air and ground attack in history. All the robots were remotely controlled. Speculation is that if the war in Ukraine gets prolonged, the operations will migrate to AI controlled robotic attacks, with a human in overall command.

Ukraine reportedly carried out the first attack exclusively with the help of robotic systems

Interestingly, an article in The Economist, titled 'Is the age of American air superiority coming to an end?', points out that the growing effectiveness of air defence systems could blunt the West's most powerful weapons. The article talks of the August 26, 2024 massive Russian attack on Ukraine with 230 missiles (each carrying 700-kg warhead) and explosive-laden 'Shaheed' drones. It was the biggest attack by Russia till then. Yet Ukraine claimed to have shot down 87 per cent of the missiles – which may have been exaggerated due to the Western and Ukraine disinformation campaign. But the article calls it a stark example of how little effect air power has had in Europe's biggest war in eight decades.

In response to the incidents, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced on December 17, 2024, a ban on drone flights over 22 critical infrastructure locations, though the White House maintains there is no credible threat to public safety.

This has also raised concerns in the West; increased effectiveness of air defence missile systems and the proliferation of small and cheap drones across battlefields – diminishing the effect of air power. Richard Knighton, head of the Royal Air Forces (RAF) has been quoted saying, "In my three and a half decades in uniform, I do not think I've seen a more challenging environment. We largely employed air superiority. That is not going to be the case in the future." This is an obvious concern for America and its allies to deter China taking control of Taiwan or Russia taking control of a NATO country.

Shahed 136

The article draws attention to the fact that both China and Russia field complex, multi-layered air-defence systems that stitch together a variety of advanced sensors and surface-to-air-missiles (SAM), plus newer digital technologies that allow radar to operate across multiple frequencies have improved detection ranges, including against stealth aircraft/ Longer range missiles equipped with better guidance seekers can now threaten aircraft hundreds of km away. According to a report by the London-based Royal United Services Institution (RUSI), rolling back air defences the size, depth and complexity of those of Russia or China would most likely take weeks and possibly months of full-scale warfighting.

Richard Knighton, head of the Royal Air Forces, remarked, "In my three and a half decades in uniform, I do not think I've seen a more challenging environment. We largely employed air superiority. That is not going to be the case in the future."

At the same time, the article states that in October this year, Israel is thought to have used F-35 fighter jets to destroy Russia-supplied SAMs in Iran, allowing strikes from missiles from non-stealth aircraft. What the article does not state is that not only Iran's hypersonic missiles, but also Houthi drones and missiles have been able to penetrate the US-supplied air defence systems to Israel, as also the Iron Dome air defence system of Israel. Then there is also the new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) 'Odesnik', which is also nuclear capable, and against which there is no known defence. The US and allies are wargaming various options to deter China annexing Taiwan, including establishing temporary corridors for long-range missiles but this will not be easy.

A report by the Royal United Services Institution (RUSI) highlights that dismantling the complex, multi-layered air-defence systems of Russia or China could take weeks or months of full-scale warfare due to their advanced technologies and long-range missile capabilities.

Elon Musk wants the US to replace fighter jets with drones; having called builders of F-35 fighter jets "idiots". Interestingly, in April 2024, the US Air Force (USAF) awarded the first batch of contracts for its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) programme, which will produce more than 1,000 advanced drones. In contrast, China has recently placed an order for one million 'kamikaze' drones to be delivered by 2026.

Indian policy makers and the Indian Armed Forces need to keep abreast of these developments; to ensure we are not left behind.