LCA ‘Tejas’ Mk1A deliveries to the Indian Air Force (IAF) were to begin in March 2024. The strategic community got a jolt when they were told that there were delays because of issues related to supplies of the GE F404-IN20 engines from US-based GE Aerospace. That the aircraft will now be handed over in August. Later the date of delivery was changed to November.

IAF that is already at an all-time low of nearly 30 squadrons was facing the prospect of going below that already low figure. The security establishment and defence hierarchy was reportedly seized of the situation, and acting to retrieve the situation and prevent further delays. During his visit to the US, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had reportedly flagged the issue.

Not just engines, Tejas Mk1A delivery could be hit over key Danish part, the engine charge amplifiers, now on export blacklist. Denmark authorities have reportedly put export restrictions on this item, which is likely to be due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. India is in talks with Denmark. It was a small product which was being imported. Because of this export blacklisting, HAL had contracted a Bengaluru firm to indigenise it. The firm, we are told, has almost completed it, and then HAL will carry out tests. It can then be mass produced.

AERIAL THREAT PERCEPTION

China is pulling ahead. They are directly competing with USA. In March this year, in a testimony on Capitol Hill, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) Navy Admiral John C. Aquilino said that China would “soon have the world’s largest air force”. In its 2023 report on Chinese military power, the Pentagon noted that the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and PLAN combined have over 3,150 operational aircraft other than trainers and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS).

PLAAF has a modern airpower with advanced fighter aircraft. Of its 1,800 combat aircraft (fighter, attack, and bombers), nearly 1,200 are 4th and 5th generation aeroplanes in more than 25 frontline combat brigades. The main active combat aircraft currently include 580 J-10 (multirole) variants, 245 J-11 (air superiority), 280 J-16 (multirole strike), 300 J-20 (5th generation air superiority), 32 Su-27 (air superiority), 97 Su-30 MKK (multirole), and 24 Su-35. China is accelerating its production of the J-16, J-10, and its sea variants as well.

LCA ‘Tejas’ Mk1A deliveries to the Indian Air Force (IAF) were delayed due to supply issues with GE F404-IN20 engines from GE Aerospace, with the first aircraft now expected in November 2024

They have nearly 180 H-6 aircraft (Soviet Tupolev Tu-16), of which around 60 are the H-6K cruise missile carrying bombers. They have around 320 transport aircraft including 50 Y-20 (66 tonne). 28 AEW&C and 21 FRA. There are nearly 25 EW aircraft. PLA Ground Forces have nearly 300 attack helicopters.

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) remains significant with 19 fighter squadrons and growing numbers of J-10CE and JF-17 supplementing the F-16 fleet. Pakistan has more AEW&C than much larger and more threatened India. India faces a collusive threat from PLAAF and PAF, who regularly improve interoperability through ‘Shaheen’ series of exercises. Most defence analysts feel that to take on a twofront war, India must have at least 50 squadrons. Against the authorised strength of 42 squadrons, IAF currently has only around 30 squadrons.

STATE OF IAF FIGHTER FLEET

The Su-30 MKI fleet and the two squadrons of Rafale are the leading-edge operational fighter assets. The Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 fleets have been upgraded to near 4.5 generations standards. Jaguars are ageing but remain significant strike aircraft assets. There are two squadrons of LCA Mk1 with the IAF having already inducted 35 of the 40 LCA Mk1 and five two-seat variants. Last MiG-21 squadron will retire very soon. All this adds up to around 650 operational fighters, with around 450 of 4th and 4.5th generation.

The plan to acquire 114 additional fighters under MRFA (Multi Role Fighter Aircraft) is still at post RFI (Request for Information) stage. RFI was received in mid-2018. The Request for Proposal (RFP) has still to go out. Even if it were to be sent out today, it could take nearly 5-6 years for aircraft to induct.

LCA MK1A NUMBERS AND PLANNED TIMELINES

The Tejas Mk1A has more than 40 improvements over the Mk1. It features a new avionic suite centred around EL/M-2052 AESA Radar and later will have the Uttam AESA Radar developed in-house. DARE Unified Electronic Warfare Suite (UEWS), an externally mounted self-protection jammer (SPJ) for enhanced survivability. On-board Oxygen Generation System (OBOGS). And an expanded weapon suite consisting of Astra BVRAAM and ASRAAM. The Tejas Mk1A will have a reduced turnaround time.

The initial contract for 83 Tejas Mk1A aircraft, worth ₹48,000 crore, was signed in 2021 as part of India’s broader strategy to enhance its indigenous defence capabilities. The first aircraft was to be delivered by March 2024. On May 20, 2022, the Tejas Mark 1A prototype completed its first flight. On March 28, 2024, the first production series Mark 1A aircraft (LA 5033) conducted its inaugural flight. The aircraft will undergo more testing before being officially transferred to the IAF.

The first Tejas Mark 1A will now be delivered in November 2024 as a result of the delay in obtaining new engines (F404-IN20) and necessary certifications. In FY2024-25, HAL was scheduled to deliver 16 fighter jets. In future, 16 jets will be produced by the Bengaluru plant, and eight by the Nashik production line. Total 83 jets are expected to be delivered by 2028-29. It is hoped that notwithstanding the initial delays, supply chains will be suitably secured, and the deliveries will catch up.

LCA MK2 AND AMCA NUMBERS AND TIMELINES

The Tejas Mk2, also called the MWF (Medium Weight Fighter) will be larger in dimensions and weight, and will incorporate a more powerful General Electric F414-INS6 engine, canards and other design changes. The Tejas Mk2, which is expected to be rolled out in 2025, will have an increased payload carrying capacity and internal fuel, more external hard-points, improved combat range, a completely redesigned cockpit, and an integrated infrared search and track (IRST) system, in addition to the AESA radar. The first flight of Tejas Mk2 is expected to be in 2025. Presuming it happens on schedule, the aircraft should induct into IAF by early 2030s.

The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) will be a twin-engine, fifth-generation stealth, multirole combat aircraft. The Mark-1 variant of the aircraft will be a fifth generation fighter while the Mark-2 variant will have sixth-generation technologies. A Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) consisting of Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and a private company is being formed for the development and production of AMCA. In March 2024, the project received approval from India’s Cabinet Committee on Security for the prototype development. The General Electric F414 engine will power the first two squadrons of AMCA.

Total five prototypes are to be built. The first flight is expected in late 2028. Mass production of the aircraft is planned to start by 2035. The IAF plan to procure at least 125 AMCA in Mark-1 and Mark-2 configurations. If all goes as per plan, the AMCA squadrons will start forming around 2038.

LCA MK1A DELIVERIES

Engines are a critical part. The aircraft is built around the engine. The engine cannot be just changed like that. HAL and General Electric had signed a contract for 99 F404 engines, which are crucial for the Tejas Mk1A jets. GE Aerospace had initially planned to deliver 16 engines annually starting in FY23, as of August 2024, none had been supplied. As expected, HAL has begun using the existing F404 engines in stock to begin testing more Mk1As. Additionally, the certification of new systems for the LCA Mk1A is still reportedly pending, further complicating the aircraft’s delivery schedule. Some stock market financial analysts have predicted reduced LCA Mk1A delivery estimates from 14 to 10 jets in FY25. HAL has plans to make good the initial delays by raising production numbers.

TO SUMMARISE

The LCA Tejas is poised to become a cornerstone of the IAF, helping to bolster its fighter squadron strength, which currently stands at 30 squadrons against the sanctioned strength of 42. Notwithstanding the challenges in delivering the Tejas Mk1A aircraft on time, HAL remains confident in its ability to meet the contractual obligations. Operationalisation of the Nashik facility should hasten the process.

If the LCA and AMCA programmes stay on schedule and the 114 MRFA aircraft are acquired, the IAF could reach its sanctioned 42 squadrons by 2038

American engine maker GE has promised two engines per month and assured that the overall delivery schedule would not be pushed. The firm had explained to the defence ministry that there were global supply chain issues and that it usually takes time for new vendors to be duly certified since parts have to undergo various tests. Meanwhile, HAL is working to ensure that the indigenisation is completed.

97 LCA Tejas Mk1A for ₹67,000 crore was cleared by DAC in November 2023. IAF is set to place many more aircraft orders in times ahead. The success of the LCA Tejas and AMCA programmes is crucial not only to enhance the IAF’s operational capabilities but also contribute to India’s goal of selfreliance in defence production.

Pakistan is already talking to China for acquisition of the 5th generation J-31 fighter. Pakistani technicians are also working in Turkey on the TAI TF Kaan 5th generation fighter programme. China is targeting to have 1,000 J-20s by 2035, to match USA in the region. Clearly, it is a wake-up call for India. If the LCA and AMCA programme were not to slip and if the 114 MRFA were to be acquired, the IAF will get its 42 squadrons only around 2038.