Unsuspecting and happily enjoying tourists were taken by surprise by unrepenting and hardened terrorists on a cool afternoon of April 22, 2025 in Baisaran meadows close to Pahalgam. In ensuing massacre, at least 26 Hindu men were brutally gunned down in front of their wailing families by a group of terrorists. Singling out Hindu men from amongst hundreds present there, lends further dastardliness to this violent act which will go down in Indian history as one of the worst acts of terrorism. The attack timing and location suggest meticulous planning and methodical execution since closest security forces were at least 30 mins away. The connivance and tacit support of Pakistan Army, ISI and local sympathisers was imprinted all over this heinous crime.

The year-on-year growth of tourism in the valley had given way to some sort of complacency. Terrorists attacking tourists in the valley was the last contingency on the minds of local population and security forces. The timing was also carefully chosen by the planners and attackers. Baisaran meadows were not guarded by security forces, they had no road connectivity for rapid police response, the Prime Minister was on a visit to Saudi Arabia and Vice President of USA was in the country. The tourist activity was picking up with upcoming school holidays suggesting return of normalcy in the valley. Lastly, the new State government was working closely with the Central government. On April 19, 2025, Omar Abdullah, the Chief Minister said “I want to convey to the people of J&K that the progress lies in the fact that the J&K government and the Central government work together for the better future of Jammu and Kashmir.” All these developments created unease amongst the perpetrators of terrorism across the border, which reflected in the volatile speech of General Asim Munir, Pakistan Army Chief, few days before the attack.

REACTIONS TO THE ATTACK

The attack drew sharp and immediate response from across the globe. World leaders spoke to Prime Minister Modi and conveyed their support to India. Within the nation, there was palpable anger and anguish. Voices suggesting immediate response and punishment echoed from every corner.

Like, after Uri and Pulwama there is expectation of a kinetic response. In fact Prime Minister Modi, while addressing a rally in Madhubani, Bihar categorically stated that “we will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers and we will pursue them to the ends of the earth”. This is the strongest reaction from the Prime Minister after the three major terror attacks of Uri, Pulwama and Pahalgam. It is the clearest expression of the resolve and likely extent of response from India.

Entire world has condemned the abhorrent act in strongest terms. India has received unequivocal support with Director of National Intelligence USA, Tulsi Gabbard assuring India of full support and help in bringing the attackers to justice. This is a noteworthy statement from the US administration. American assistance would be immensely helpful in augmenting Indian intelligence capability in tracking down the terrorists. This would also provide the proof to the world of the complicity of Pakistani establishment, and lend legitimacy to an Indian response.

In the immediate aftermath of killings, President Trump called Prime Minister Modi and said that “the United States stands with India in its fight against terrorism and offered all possible support.” However, on April 26, 2025, President Trump said “I am very close to India, and I’m very close to Pakistan, and they’ve had that fight for a thousand years in Kashmir. There have been tensions on that border for 1,500 years. It’s been the same, but I am sure they’ll figure it out one way or the other”. This statement can be viewed two ways, firstly, that the USA wants to keep itself out of this situation, secondly, the USA has given free hand to India to do what it deems appropriate. The difference this time is that, except for UN, most nations have not advised restraint or dialogue.

ACTIONS BY INDIA

India responded rapidly to this act of terror. The Prime Minister presided over the meeting of Cabinet Committee on Security after cutting short his visit to Saudi Arabia. Indian government immediately announced numerous measures against Pakistan to convey Indian resolve that business can’t continue as usual till Pakistan unequivocally stops aiding and abetting terrorism. Holding Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance being the most significant step with wide ranging ramifications. Closing Atari-Wagah border and immediate return of Pakistanis visiting India also indicated that it was the entire Pakistani nation that has to bear the consequences of the actions of a rogue army.

All available inputs indicate that, all options are on the table and this time the response will be fiercer. Domestically, the counter terror operations within the valley gained momentum. Local supporters and terrorists are being apprehended and their houses brought down to send a strong signal to others in the valley.

India has suffered innumerable casualties from acts of terror over the last 35 years. The intensity has ebbed and flowed. In recent times, the terrorists have targeted the security forces, migrant workers and Hindus visiting or working in the valley. Historically, Indian response has been subdued/ measured till the surgical strike after Uri attack and air strike after the Pulwama attack.

THE LONG GAME

It is clear that, Indian actions have not been able to deter the Pakistan in sponsoring terrorism. Indian actions have remained tactical, short-term and episodic. These actions have produced spells of temporary peace with sub-terranean unrest and conducive environment for growth of terrorism with little indications on the ground. Now, India needs to change its strategy to achieve a permanent or a long-term solution. While one cannot guarantee zero acts of terror, it must be loud and clear to the perpetrators that the cost of any such intransigence would be punishing. A long-term strategy broken down into specific operational and tactical actions should be developed and implemented. Sustained action on multiple fronts is likely to succeed. India can sustain multitude of actions since it is a much more powerful country.

The long game should comprise of multi-dimensional, multi-domain and multi-lateral actions. Multi-Dimensional moves would encompass diplomatic, economic, military, information warfare and strategic communication measures. While a slew of diplomatic and economic measures have been announced, the government should identify more measures to cut off economic aid to Pakistan by working closely with the nations in the Middle East through Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Both Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have come to India’s support against the Pahalgam attack. Also, the measures could include:

• Declaring Pakistan as state sponsor of terrorism, garner world support to preclude any interference against military or unconventional actions by India, stopping of any military supplies to Pakistan from western nations, identify and stifle Pakistan Army businesses.
• Work closely with Russia, Saudi Arabia and UAE to curb crude oil supplies to Pakistan. Any shortage in supply of oil will pinch Pakistani population.
• Work with USA to apply strict controls on Pakistan in use of military equipment supplied by USA under foreign military assistance scheme including freeze on recent approval of $397 million for maintaining F-16s, and tightly control their deployment and operations especially, after cessation of US operations in Afghanistan.
• Conduct concentrated information warfare against the Pakistani establishment and ISI.
• All efforts should be made to redesignate Pakistan into FATF grey list, expose corruption in various organs of Pakistani Executive and Military and how common Pakistani is suffering due to the actions of Pakistani military and political leaders.
• Effect of diversion of water from Indus, Jhelum and Chenab will further exacerbate the lives of common Pakistani.

Multi-Domain actions would comprise synchronised actions from the Indian military comprising Land, Sea, Air, Cyber and Space domains. Multi-Lateral actions would encompass close coordination with different countries and agencies in an effort to isolate and weaken Pakistan.

Any kinetic action is likely to draw a response from Pakistan military like, the swift retort after the Balakot strike by India in 2019. This could have escalatory effect in view of current state of relations and state of Pakistani Army. Pakistan military has already gone to heightened state of alert including some media inputs of mobilisation in certain areas. Kinetic actions could be planned to ensure escalation control is retained by India in consonance with desired long-term effects. It is important that India hits where it hurts the most, and any retaliation by Pakistan would be met with stronger response. The aim would be to impose prohibitive costs.

Prime Minister Modi categorically stated that ‘we will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers and we will pursue them to the ends of the earth,’ signalling India’s strongest reaction since Uri, Pulwama and now Pahalgam

Sustained military activity in all three domains by the Army, Navy and Air Force would progressively drain Pakistani military’s capacity to retaliate and create opportunities for a decisive kinetic strike. India could capitalise on the wide spread deployment of Pakistani army. One lesson from Ukraine has been extensive use of drones in tactical battle area and its effect on armour, which could be factored in. Judiciously calibrating actions would keep Pakistan guessing of India’s real intentions. Any misadventure during this period by Pakistan would allow unfettered response from India. Latest reports indicate upsurge in cross border firing along the LoC, this can be advantageously exploited to degrade Pakistani military capability.

As time passes the intensity of outrage is likely to reduce and the voices exercising restraint would grow. The Pakistani leadership in all domains would have gone underground and the terrorist camps would have been vacated. This would prove challenging for kinetic action against individuals or terrorist infrastructure, however, there is bound to be target rich environment otherwise.

Pakistan military has continued to build capabilities in all three domains despite its precarious economic situation, thanks to its all-weather friends, China and Turkey and the businesses run by the military. So, if India does go kinetic, which seems probable, then Pakistan is likely to be covertly supported by China and Turkey. There are reports of China moving PL-15 long range AAMs and a C-130 of Turkey landing in Karachi with military supplies (both reports being unconfirmed). These are in addition to the six Turkish C-130 aircraft which landed in Islamabad with military aid as reported in the media on April 28, 2025. Pakistan military operates lot of Chinese equipment and Turkish and Chinese UAVs. Pakistan, this time is not likely to take for granted availability of the F-16s which it copiously used during Operation Swift Retort in response to Balakot strikes by India. PL-15 provides it a long range AAM option from JF-17s and J-10CE obtained from China (About 70 PAF fighter aircraft, JF-17 and J-10CE can carry PL-15 AAMs).

The Pakistan Army presently faces multiple challenges. Its population does not perceive the army as its messiah or savior, there is growing unrest in Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and along Durand line with Afghanistan. There are reports of schism in the highest military leadership, and loss of trust in General Munir. Loss of credibility and deployments across the country in counter terror and counter insurgency operations can be exploited.

BUILD MILITARY CAPABILITY AND CAPACITY

The current situation along borders with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar should be factored in. Hitting terrorist camps which have frugal infrastructure and can be rapidly vacated will not hurt Pakistan, it would be mere signaling of capability. Progressive draining of economic support to terrorist organisations and selective time sensitive targeting of terrorist leadership would create desired effects. The fear that one could be hunted down in his own country is the preferred outcome. This can be done overtly and covertly while ensuring anonymity. India must invest in any capabilities necessary to stealthily neutralise the target in near real time without worrying too much about collateral damage. Pakistan is not like Hamas and hence we must be ready for retaliation in some form.

Along with offensive measures, strong defensive measures are also important. The present counter terrorism grid involves lakhs of uniformed personnel and intelligence agencies. Their coordination and technologies need to be strengthened. Artificial Intelligence could be incorporated in mapping routes, terrorists, their handlers, voice signatures and their likely supporters in local community.

India must build on the support received from local population after this reprehensible incident. A sense of confidence must be quickly reinstated in tourists and there should be a concerted campaign to get them back at the earliest. The administration should demonstrate its capability in doing so by ensuring visibility and availability of uniformed personnel and closely controlling the tourist movement to places of attraction. The local goodwill earned in recent years must not be allowed to slide.

Recent changes in terrorist activities highlight the innovative approach of surprising the security forces, regularly striking where the security is thin or absent (Pahalgam is an example) and doing the unexpected. India should sustain strong security and counter terrorism posture all along LoC and in the hinterland. There should be no letup in the pressure that is being currently applied. The intelligence needs to be strengthened and higher accountability must be demanded from all concerned.

In the long game, the most important thing is “Never Forgive, Never Forget”. It is important that all measures announced so far or those to be announced in future must be monitored at the highest level for implementation and whether desired effects can be quantified. This whole process could take months or years, so the entire plan should be process driven since there is every likelihood that Pakistani military and terrorist groups will lie low for some time, a distraction the nation cannot afford.

Importance of military capability and capacity can never be understated. India has faced such situations on both its borders with alarming regularity. Military capability cannot be built overnight, while diplomacy shapes the environment for favourable status in comity of nations, deterrence is provided by strong military capability. Specific capabilities should be developed or acquired to rapidly respond to such contingencies and sustain trans-border counter terrorist operations. Last one decade has been most successful for India in poverty alleviation, as India transitioned into lower-middle-income category. The defence budget has however, remained stagnant below two per cent of GDP which adversely affects capability buildup to counter evolving threats.

CONCLUSION

The act of terror unleashed on innocent tourists in Pahalgam deserves strongest retribution. It is clear that India will not sit quiet and the response this time will be bigger and broader. Indian citizens are confident that the response will be multidimensional, multi-domain and multi-lateral to achieve visible end state and lasting peace and tranquility in the valley.

This time around, the retribution must not be a one-off event, a definitive change can only be expected if actions by India are sustained and strongly implemented till the accomplishment of desired outcomes. Proactive and not reactive approach is the need of the hour. Indian game plan should be executed as per its own timelines which keeps Pakistan off guard, the plan must inflict unsurmountable pain to its military and methodically dismantle its terror network. The end state would be serious degradation of the deep state in Pakistan leading to loss of sanctuary for terrorist leadership. This end state is possible if India plays the long game.